The Gambler’s Fallacy is a common misconception about probability, specifically applied to random events. It’s the mistaken belief that past events influence the likelihood of future events, when in reality, each occurrence is independent. People tend to find patterns even in random sequences. The gambler’s fallacy stems from this desire to see order in randomness.
What causes Gambler’s Fallacy
We expect patterns to emerge over time, but random events can defy these expectations in the short term. The gambler’s fallacy occurs when someone mistakenly assumes this evening-out needs to happen immediately after a streak.
We tend to focus on information that confirms our existing beliefs, a phenomenon known as confirmation bias. A gambler might remember losing streaks more vividly, reinforcing the false idea that a win is “due.”
To Avoid Gambler’s Fallacy
Recognize that random events are just that – random. Past outcomes have no bearing on future probabilities.Additionally have a plan for your gambling or other risky activities, and stick to it regardless of short-term results.
The Gambler’s Fallacy is a common pitfall. By understanding how randomness works and avoiding the temptation to see patterns where there are none, you can make better decisions in situations that involve chance.