The conjunction fallacy is a cognitive bias that occurs when people mistakenly believe that a specific scenario (conjunction) is more likely than a more general scenario that encompasses it. In simpler terms, we tend to think that very specific situations are more probable than broader categories they fit into, violating the laws of probability.
Event A: Bank Teller
Event B: Bank Teller and Feminist
The probability of event B (bank teller and feminist) can never be higher than the probability of event A (bank teller) because B is a more specific case that fits within A.
Why Does it Happen?
There are a few reasons why we fall prey to the conjunction fallacy:
Representativeness: We tend to judge the likelihood of something based on how well it matches a stereotype or prototype.
Focus on Vividness: Specific, detailed scenarios can seem more vivid and believable than broader categories.
The Conjunction Fallacy highlights a common thinking error. By being aware of it, we can make more logical and objective decisions in various situations.