A Guide To What Never Changes
1804090638
Morgan Housel
Table of Contents (Subtitles)
- Introduction
- If you know where we’ve been, you realize we have no idea where we’re going.
- We are very good at predicting the future, except for the surprises – which tend to be all that matter.
- The first rule of happiness is low expectations.
- People who think about the world in unique ways you like also think about the world in unique ways you won’t like.
- People don’t want accuracy. They want certainty.
- Stories are always more powerful than statistics.
- The world is driven by forces that cannot be measured.
- Crazy doesn’t mean broken. Crazy is normal; beyond the point of crazy is normal.
- A good idea on steroids quickly becomes a terrible idea.
- Stress focuses your attention in ways that good times can’t.
- Good news comes from compounding, which always takes time, but bad news comes from a loss in confidence or a catastrophic error that can occur in a blink of an eye.
- When little things compound into extraordinary things.
- Progress requires optimism (long-term) and pessimism (short-term) to coexist.
- There is a huge advantage to being a little imperfect.
- Everything worth pursuing comes with a little pain. The trick is not minding that it hurts.
- Most competitive advantages eventually die.
- It always feels like we’re falling behind, and it’s easy to discount the potential of new technology.
- “The grass is always greener on the side that’s fertilized with bullshit.”
- When the incentives are crazy, the behavior is crazy. PEople can be led to justify and defend nearly anything.
- Nothing is more persuasive than what you’ve experienced firsthand.
- Saying “I’m in it for the long run” is a bit like standing at the base of Mount Everest, pointing to the top, and saying, “That’s where I’m heading.” Well, that’s nice. Now comes the test.
- There are no points awarded for difficulty.
- What have you experienced that I haven’t that makes you believe what you do? And would I think about the world like you do if I experienced what you have?
Notes
Entrepreneur and investor, Naval RAvikant, put it this way: “In 1,000 parallel universes, you wan to be wealthy in 999 of them. You don’t want to be wealthy in the fifty of them where you got lucky, so we want to factor luck out of it…I want to live in a way that if my life played out 1,000 times, Naval is successful 999 times.”
Nassim Taleb says, “Invest in preparedness, not in prediction.” That gets to the heart of it.
Being driven by what other people have and you don’t is an unavoidable trait in most people. It also highlights just how important managing expectations can be if you want to live a happy life.
“One day, I realized with all these people I was jealous of, I couldn’t just choose little aspects of their life. I couldn’t say I want his body, I want her money, I want his personality. You have to be that person. Do you want to actually be that person with all of their reactions, their desires, their family, their happiness level, their outlook on life, their self-image? If you’re not willing to do a wholesale, 24/7, 100% swap with who that person is, then there is no point in being jealous.” – Naval Ravikant
Every investment price, every market valuation, is just a number from today multiplied by a story about tomorrow.
Big fast changes happen only when they’re forced by necessity.
The trick in any field – from finance to careers to relationships – is being able to survive the short-run problems so you can stick around long enough to enjoy the long-term growth.
An artist is a sort of emotional historian (though Housel makes the case that most people do not reveal the ugly in their lives).
Mark Twain said kids provide the most interesting information, “for they tell all they know and then they stop.” Adults tend to lose this skill. Or they learn a new skill: how to dazzle with nonsense. Stephen King explains in his book On Writing: “This is a short book because most books about writing are filled with bullshit. I figured the shorter the book, the less bullshit.”
Questions
Who has the right answers but I ignore because they’re not articulate?
Which of my current views would I disagree with if I were born in a different country or generation?
What do I desperately want to be true so much that I think it’s true when it’s clearly not?
What is a problem that I think applies only to other countries / industries / careers that will eventually hit me?
What do I think is true but is actually just good marketing?
What haven’t I experienced firsthand that leaves me naive about how something works?
What looks unsustainable but is actually a new trend we haven’t accepted yet?
Who do I think is smart but is actually full of it?
Am I prepared to handle risks I can’t even envision?
Which of my current views would change if my incentives were different?
What are we ignoring today that will seem shockingly obvious in the future?
What events very nearly happened that would have fundamentally changed the world I know if they had occurred?
How much have things outside my control contributed to things I take credit for?
How do I know if I’m being patient (a skill) or stubborn (a flaw)?
Who do I look up to that is secretly miserable?
What hassle am I trying to eliminate that’s actually an unavoidable cost of success?
What crazy genius that I aspire to emulate is actually just crazy?
What strong belief do I hold that’s most likely to change?
What’s always been true?
If we accept that we will not retire, then is the score we are keeping consistent with the game we are playing? Net worth accumulation is usually in reference to when people can comfortably retire. If the plan is to never retire (retirement sounds dreadful), then our needs will always be provided for out of current income.