The Lindy Effect is a concept suggesting that the future life expectancy of a non-perishable thing is proportional to its current age. In simpler terms, the longer something has survived, the longer it is likely to survive into the future.
- Non-perishable: The Lindy Effect primarily applies to things that don’t have a biological lifespan, such as ideas, technologies, or books.
- Survivorship Bias: It’s related to survivorship bias, as it focuses on things that have already endured.
- Exponential Growth: The longer something survives, the more likely it is to survive even longer.
Examples:
- Books: Classic novels like “Pride and Prejudice” have endured for centuries and are likely to continue to be read.
- Technologies: Established programming languages like C++ have a longer expected lifespan than newer languages.
- Ideas: Philosophical concepts that have stood the test of time are more likely to remain relevant.
In essence, the Lindy Effect provides a useful heuristic for evaluating the longevity of non-perishable items, but it should be used in conjunction with other factors when making predictions.